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Extra info for Beer Magazine (May/June 2009)

Example text

And sometimes we single out “special people,” like leaders, vi­ sionaries, or “influencers” to whom we attribute all the agency. Regardless of which trick we use, however, the result is that our explanations of collective behavior paper over most of what is actually happening. The third and final type of problem with commonsense rea­ soning is that we learn less from history than we think we do, and that this misperception in turn skews our perception of the future. Whenever something interesting, dramatic, or ter­ rible happens— Hush Puppies become popular again, a book by an unknown author becomes an international best seller, the housing bubble bursts, or terrorists crash planes into the World Trade Center— we instinctively look for explanations.

For example, it is a matter of common sense that what we wear or do or say in front of our boss will be different from how we behave in front of our friends, our parents, our parents’ friends, or our friends’ par­ ents. 7 It is largely for this reason, in fact, that commonsense knowledge has proven so hard to replicate in computers— because, in contrast with theoretical knowledge, it requires a relatively large number of rules to deal with even a small number of special cases. Let’s say, for example, that you wanted to program a robot to navigate the subway.

Regardless of which trick we use, however, the result is that our explanations of collective behavior paper over most of what is actually happening. The third and final type of problem with commonsense rea­ soning is that we learn less from history than we think we do, and that this misperception in turn skews our perception of the future. Whenever something interesting, dramatic, or ter­ rible happens— Hush Puppies become popular again, a book by an unknown author becomes an international best seller, the housing bubble bursts, or terrorists crash planes into the World Trade Center— we instinctively look for explanations.

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Beer Magazine (May/June 2009)


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